Gold appealing to younger family office investors amid market volatility

Source: CRAIN CURRENCY | Marcus Baram

Jun 15, 2023

KRISTINA RUOTOLO

For centuries, gold has retained an allure as a safe-haven asset, especially during times of turbulence and market volatility. 

Family offices and ultra-high-net-worth investors — using gold as part of their asset diversification strategy — have recently helped boost its price, which has increased 35% in the past five years. Traditionally favored by older investors, this time it’s attracting next-gen family office members, gold market analysts say.

“Since late 2022, investors appear to have gravitated toward the precious metal as a way to preserve their wealth and hedge against the risk of a recession later this year,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group in Abu Dhabi.

Gold is often favored during times of crisis for several reasons. Despite its high price volatility, it is a relatively secure investment and extremely stable in value. Because it often goes against market and interest-rate changes, gold can serve as insurance against economic downturns. That’s partly due to its rarity and limited supply. 

As a tangible asset, the precious metal — in the form of gold coins, gold bars or jewelry  —  protects investors against inflation, said Joseph Cavatoni, North American market strategist for the World Gold Council.

That protection appeals to family offices, which use gold to diversity their assets and as a “shock absorber in their portfolio” during these times of inflation and high interest rates, Cavatoni said. He’s seeing more interest from European family offices versus the U.S. market, though retail sales to consumers have slowed in India and China due to pandemic-related lockdowns. 

“We’re seeing ultra-high-net-worth individuals come on the scene and make big purchases,” said Bill Voss, founder of Bullion Box, a subscription service that sends a curated box of precious metals every month. One favored strategy for investors, he said, involves building a portfolio that is one-third bullion, one-third semirare numismatic coins and one-third rare coins. 

“Secondarily,” Voss said, “we’re being approached by family offices and other groups about acquisition opportunities in the sector.” 

A major reason for gold’s recent price increase is that it’s being snapped up by more central banks around the world as part of their reserves portfolio, and it’s being used to manufacture electronics and many consumer products like cellphones, Cavatoni said.

Younger wealthy investors who may have been burned by the collapse of the crypto market also are increasingly turning to precious metals — including gold, silver and platinum. 

“We’re getting so many requests from younger generations for precious metals,” Voss said. “It used to always be 50-something-and-older customers, but now it’s skewing much lower.”

Part of gold’s appeal is its tangible quality as a beautiful physical asset, Cavatoni said. For many people, it’s about “I can get a little bling and have it earn at the same time,” he said.

People who don’t necessarily trust the banks right now “want to hold something in their hands,” Voss said. “If more banks crash, they know they have something to go to and put their hands on.”

So far, the outlook for gold looks positive. Spot gold has advanced by more than 7% so far this year, said Exinity Group’s Tan, “on hopes that the Fed is approaching the end of the current rate-hike cycle.” 

All that glitters for now just may be gold. 

AUTHOR Marcus Baram

Marcus Baram is a contributing editor at Crain Currency, where he covers the intersection of finance and politics. Prior to joining Crain Currency, Baram was a staff writer at Fast Company and an editor at Huff Post. He has also written for outlets such as The New York Times, The Atlantic, and Vice. Baram is an expert on economic policy and has a deep understanding of the ways in which politics shapes the global financial system. In his role at Crain Currency, he brings a unique perspective to the complex and ever-evolving world of finance. With his keen analysis and clear writing, Baram helps readers make sense of the important issues impacting the economy today.

Gold inches up on weaker dollar as investors focus on US inflation

Lower interest rate expectations from the Fed could cause the bullion to trend higher, analyst says

08 MAY 2023 – 07:46ASHITHA SHIVAPRASAD

Bengaluru — Gold prices edged up on Monday as the dollar eased, while investors awaited a key US inflation data due this week that could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.

Spot gold firmed 0.3% at $2,021.80 per ounce by 3.23am GMT (5.23am). US gold futures rose 0.2% at $2,028.20.

The dollar index dipped 0.1%, making bullion more attractive to overseas buyers.

The US consumer price index (CPI) data is due on Wednesday.

Any signs of inflation being subdued would hinder the greenback due to lower interest rate expectations from the Fed, which could cause gold to trend higher, said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

Traders also keep a tab on the developments over the US banking sector and the US debt ceiling.

US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday issued a stark warning that a failure by Congress to act on the debt ceiling could trigger a “constitutional crisis”.

Gold would be among the “prime beneficiaries” if there are further signs of weakness in the US economy and prices could move to $2,100 sooner rather than later, Waterer said.

Economic uncertainty and lower rates attract demand for zero-yielding bullion.

“We are constructive on precious metals going into May … We anticipate a trading range of $1,954-$2,080 per ounce for gold [in May],” Edward Meir, metals analyst at Marex, said in a note.

On the physical front, China held 66.76-million fine troy ounces of gold at end-April, up from 66.50-million ounces at end-March.

Spot silver was up 0.2% at $25.70 per ounce.

Platinum rose 0.2% at $1,061.36, and palladium gained 1.3% to $1,510.55.

“Platinum is regaining investors’ attention as fundamentals improve,” ANZ wrote in a note.

“SA mining challenges weigh on supply recovery this year, while demand is getting support from gold as well as substitution away from palladium.” 

Reuters

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD jumps above $1,920 after US data

Source: FXSTREET NEWS | 1/31/2023 3:05:16 PM GMT | By Matías Salord

  • US Dollar weakens following Q4 US Employment Cost Index.
  • Data points to more evidence of a slow down in inflation.
  • XAU/USD erases daily losses with a rebound of more than $10.

Gold prices bounced sharply higher following the release of US labor costs data for the fourth quarter. More evidence of a slowdown in inflation pushed US yields to the downside and Wall Street to the upside, weakening the greenback.

The Employment Cost Index (ECI) rose 1% in the fourth quarter, below the 1.1% of market consensus and marked the third consecutive slowdown. Still the index is up by 4% compared to a year ago. The evidence of an improvement in the inflation outlook boosted US yields ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision.

Still the numbers are high, suggesting that inflation is still not consistent with Fed’s target. “Even as supply chain pressures ease, commodity prices cool and housing costs temper, we think the FOMC still wants to see a bit more slowing in wage growth before the Committee feels confident inflation is firmly headed to 2% over the medium term”, said analysts at Wells Fargo.

The greenback tumbled after the report and also did Treasuries, boosting gold. Also equity and crude oil price rose. XAU/USD erased all losses and it is hovering around daily highs at $1,927.

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PRECIOUS-Gold under pressure as U.S. yields, dollar firm

* European Central Bank policy meeting due on Thursday * More platinum deficits loom after record 2020 undersupply – WPIC * Platinum prices likely to reach $1,300/oz over 12 months – UBS (Updates prices) By Shreyansi Singh March 10 (Reuters) – Gold eased on Wednesday after registering its biggest jump in two months in the last session, as higher U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar remained a stumbling block for bullion. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,711.21 per ounce by 1207 GMT after rising more than 2% on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,709.20. U.S. yields regained momentum on Wednesday, raising the opportunity cost of holding bullion, while the dollar also gained. “Gold prices are likely to remain under pressure, while concerns about inflation are front of mind for the market,” said CMC Markets UK’s chief market analyst, Michael Hewson, adding a stronger dollar could be a further drag on bullion prices over the next few days.

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Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD attempts to stabilize ahead of the $1670 June low – Commerzbank

Gold is attempting to stabilize at the 2019-2021 uptrend at $1667 but the yellow metal needs to do more work to negate the downside pressure, Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, reports. 

See – Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD to near the confluence support zone at $1,660-$1,670 – DBS Bank

Key quotes

“The market has sold off towards the $1670 June low and the $1667 2019-2021 uptrend. This is currently holding the downside.” 

“Initial resistance is offered by the $1760/$1772 band, which is the May high and previous 50% retracement and the short-term downtrend in order to alleviate downside pressure and signal recovery to the 200-day ma at $1861.” 

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Gold Price Outlook Remains Mired by Broader Recovery in US Yields

GOLD TALKING POINTS

The price of gold attempts to retrace the decline from the beginning of March as the US 10-Year Treasury yield pulls back from a fresh yearly high (1.62%), but key market themes may keep the precious mental under pressure as the Federal Reserve appears to be in no rush to alter the path for monetary policy.

FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR GOLD: BEARISH

The price of gold bounces back from a fresh weekly low ($1688) as the initial reaction to the 379K rise in US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) dissipates, and the recent weakness in longer-dated Treasury yields may lead to a larger rebound in the precious metal even as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintains a dovish forward guidance.

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Gold Slides to 9-month Low as Rising Bond Yields, Dollar Dim Appeal

Gold slid as much as 2% to its lowest in nearly nine months on Wednesday as elevated U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar hammered the metal’s appeal.

Spot gold was down 1.2% at $1,718.09 per ounce by 11:56 a.m. ET (1656 GMT), after falling to its lowest since June 2020 at $1,701.40 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures lost 0.9% to $1,718.80.

”As real rates continue to rise, that’s challenging gold. The rates markets are also adding pressure on valuations for all asset classes, and as a result, gold is a casualty,” said TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali.

Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields crept back towards a one-year peak reached last week, while the dollar rose.

READ MORE

WGC Unveils Social Responsibility Report by the Gold Industry

According to the report, the pandemic has had an impact on businesses across the globe.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The Gold Responsibility & Paramount Mission” summit held in Beijing on November 6th provides social responsibility report by the gold industry on prevention and control during times of crisis. The report, prepared jointly by the China Gold Association, Shanghai Gold Exchange, World Gold Council and Sina Finance, focuses on the efforts undertaken by the Chinese gold industry in overcoming the difficulties of the time.

According to the report, the pandemic has had an impact on businesses across the globe. However, all major gold companies were holding fast to the front line of epidemic prevention and control. All these companies formulated and implemented anti-epidemic measures, which helped them to resume production in a timely and regulatory manner. Also, gold regulatory bodies and industry trade associations played leading role in mobilizing the entire industry back into action.

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Gold heading back to 1872 supports as European stocks tumble

Yen and Dollar surges broadly as European stocks tumble sharp on the come back of coronavirus. At the moment, FTSE is down -1.77%> DAX is down -3.25%. CAC is down -3.07%. DOW future is also down nearly -500 pts.

Gold drops back below 1900 handle today, following the rally in Dollar. While it’s essentially still range bound, focus is back on 1872.85 support. Firm break there will suggest that whole corrective pattern from 2075.18 high is extending with another leg through 1848.39 low.

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Gold rebounds as Fed’s new inflation strategy boosts investor appetite

The fallout from the US Fed’s new inflation strategy continued on Friday, with investors finding comfort that policy will remain accommodative. This saw the ANZ China Commodity Index ending the session up 0.2%. This capped off a positive week for commodities, with the CCI rising 0.6%. Industrial metals led the complex, with nickel and copper recording strong gains. Precious metals were also stronger, with gold rising 1.3% over the week. Crude oil gained, sending the energy sector higher. Bulk commodities ended the week lower, as iron ore fell. Agriculture was down over the course of the week.

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