While the 1899 Barber half dollar is more plentiful than the 1896 and 1898 issues, it is a condition rarity in Gem or finer grades. A lack of interest in business strike Philadelphia Mint issues at the time of issue is largely responsible for the low high-grade survival rate. Prior to the 1980s, most collectors sought out proof coins for the sole reason that they were considered more desirable from an aesthetics viewpoint. The PCGS population is just 2 with a single (MS67+) example graded higher.
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The 1892 has the last ultra-low mintage in the Liberty double eagle series, just 4,430 coins. Contemporary collectors paid little attention to high-denomination gold, and those that did often sought out proofs, not circulation strikes. As a result, this issue is about as rare in Mint State as its mintage would suggest, and even AU coins are scarce.
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As the most prominent nonstandard variety within the Standing Liberty quarter series, the 1918/7-S overdate enjoys perpetual high demand. A single obverse die first received an impression from a 1917-S (Type Two) working hub, but when it went back into the press, it received an impression from a 1918-S hub instead of one with a matching date. On the last digit of the date, the 8 was laid over the top of the 7, creating the overdate feature. Alan Herbert’s “Coin Clinic” column for the January 16, 2001 edition of Numismatic News offers an intriguing perspective on the rarity of the 1918/7-S quarter. In response to the question “Is there any special reason why the overdate is relatively rare?” he offers this answer: “One reason given, but mostly overlooked is the notation that the single die involved in this overdate cracked through the date at a fairly early stage and apparently was taken out of service after only a relatively small number were struck. Since die life in that era was not very high to begin with, this didn’t leave very many of the coins to reach circulation.”
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Courtesy of ZeroHedge by Tyler Durden Sat, 01/18/2020 – 14:30
Submitted by Jan Nieuwenhuijs of Voima Insight.
There are reasons to think that the gold price will rise faster than expected.
Since 2009 China has withdrawn 12,000 tonnes of gold from the rest of the world, where the short and medium-term gold price is set. For reasons I will explain, a tighter market outside of China can make the price of gold price rise faster than many expect. I believe the gold price will rise, because of excessive debt levels around the world, and incessant money printing by central banks. Central banks will try and resolve the debt burden through currency depreciation (inflation). China has been preparing for this scenario by buying gold.
One of the key drivers in recent decades for the US dollar gold price is real interest rates. It is thought that when interest rates on long-term sovereign bonds, minus inflation, are falling, it becomes more attractive to own gold as it is a less risky asset than sovereign bonds (gold has no counterparty risk). However, gold doesn’t yield a return (unless you lend it). So, when real rates rise, it becomes more attractive to own bonds.
Although the correlation is clear, it might change in the future. Possibly, when real rates fall, the gold price will rise faster than before. Let me explain why.
In my previous post, we have seen that the gold price in the short and medium-term is mainly set in the West by institutional supply of and demand for above-ground stocks. For the gold price, what matters is how much above-ground stock is in strong hands, i.e., owners of gold that will not be easily persuaded to sell.
A significant change in the global economy in the past two decades was the rapid expansion of China’s economy. As early as the 1980s, China started to liberalize its economy, but it was only after it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 that its economy gained significance internationally. At the time of writing, the size of China’s economy is second globally. In 2002 China freed up its gold market with the opening of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE).
Because of the aforementioned developments, and its Eastern mentality regarding gold, a few years after the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), China became a major player in the global gold market. It was a net importer since the 1990s, but imports grew in 2010 and exploded in 2013.
China’s central bank (which supervises the SGE) and other government departments have been stimulating physical gold ownership. One reason the government erected the SGE, was to allow the people to have direct access to the wholesale market and to be able to trade 999.9 fine gold at the lowest spreads. The stimulation program is sometimes referred to as the “People’s Gold.” In 2012, President of the China Gold Association, Sun Zhaoxue, wrote in Qiushi, the leading academic journal of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee:
Because gold possesses stable intrinsic value, it is both the cornerstone of a countries’ currency and credit, as well as a global strategic reserve. Without exception, world economic powers established gold strategies at the national level. … the state will need to elevate gold to an equal strategic resource as oil and energy, …
In addition, because individual investment demand is an important component of China’s gold reserve system, we should encourage individual investment demand for gold. Practice shows that gold possession by citizens is an effective supplement to national reserves and is very important to national financial security. … We should advocate to ‘store gold among the people’ [“People’s Gold”] and guide a healthy positive development in this segment. … This is the objective under our gold strategy.
The world economy faces new changes, new challenges and new opportunities. Therefore, we must relook the status and function of gold from a strategic height, and create and implement a national gold strategy, to strengthen our country’s ability to counter complex situations.
Several national central banks in Europe will agree with Sun Zhaoxue, as they’re slowly preparing for Plan B: gold.
In 2016 the SGE launched a smartphone application called “Yijintong” to further ease gold trading for everyone. Note, the government has mainly facilitated the infrastructure for gold trading in China. Nobody forces Chinese citizens to buy gold. “China has been infatuated with gold for thousands of years,” according to former Managing Director of the Far East for the World Gold Council, Albert L.H. Cheng.
When the Chinese population had an opportunity to buy gold, so they did. According to my estimates, there are currently 20,398 metric tonnes owned by the private sector in China. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) holds 1,948 tonnes, bringing the total to 22,346 tonnes. Up 230% from 2009.
Since the GFC, China has net imported 12,000 tonnes of gold. The gold came from the rest of the world, where the price is set in the short and medium-term. At this stage, it’s prohibited by the PBoC to export gold from the Chinese domestic market—all 20,398 tonnes of it. Gold owned by the Chinese is in strong hands. The fact the market in the West has become tighter can make gold go up faster than expected, according to my analysis. Needless to say, when sovereign bonds are downgraded (rated as riskier), the dynamic between real rates and gold will change too.
From industry insiders and circumstantial evidence, I believe the PBoC holds at least twice the amount of gold officially disclosed. Underreporting their gold reserves allowed the PBoC to accumulate at lower prices. Metal held by the PBoC, in addition to officially reported, was bought abroad and would add another 2,000 tonnes to China’s net import since the GFC. But I will leave this subject for a forthcoming article. I exclude speculative data in the paragraphs and charts above.
One reason for the gold price to rise is because the global debt-to-GDP ratios are excessive, and will be lowered, partially, through inflation. Debt in moderation can cause real economic progress. However, debt in excess can cause bubbles, stagnation, or depressions; too much debt caused the GFC. Unfortunately, the medicine we took was more debt. Last week, the World Bank warned the current debt wave is “the largest, fastest, and most broad-based wave of debt accumulation in advanced economies as well as in emerging and developing economies” since the 1970s.
NEW TODAY | Global debt reached a new all-time high of 322% of GDP in Q3 2019, with total debt nearing $253 trillion.
Access the Global Debt Monitor report and database here: https://t.co/UyFYqwNRPx pic.twitter.com/jhEGoD1evz— IIF (@IIF) January 13, 2020
In the stalemate, Christine Lagarde, the new head of the European Central Bank, is urging the few countries with relatively low debt levels, to “stimulate” the economy by borrowing and spending. Meanwhile, she holds key interest rates below zero and the printing press active. The Federal Reserve has reignited its printing press last September, which gave the US stock market another catalyst. When push comes to shove, our monetary “leaders” will always revert to printing money. There is a sense of logic in this, as to not intervene would undermine a central banks’ right to exist.
My concern is that money printing and more government-induced debt will ultimately lead to high inflation. Central banks will be reluctant to raise interest rates when that happens, as it would make the debt unserviceable. A “side effect” of high inflation, is that it reduces the debt burden. (Debt is fixed in nominal terms, of which the real value is eroded through inflation.) It’s an old trick to get out of debt through inflation, and governments are likely to choose this route.
In the scenario described above real rates will fall, and the price of gold will go up.
The 1886 Indian cent varieties, Type One and Type Two, were actually caused by a subtle but complete redesign of the entire obverse hub by Charles Barber, making the Type Two coins not only pointing their lowest feather between CA rather than IC but showing shallower relief. Only about 20% of the 1886 cents are of the Type Two 1886 cents show the lowest feather tip pointing between CA rather than IC. Today, full Red examples are scarce, and are rarely seen in Gem or better condition. In hand, this coin is considerably lighter, brighter and flashier than seen in our images.
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Several factors account for the key status of the 1861-C within the Charlotte series. First, its mintage is low with only 6,879 pieces produced. Second, of those coins struck it is estimated that a mere 150-175 examples are known today in all grades. Third, it is the final year of issue for the Charlotte mint, always an important collecting point. Fourth, and perhaps of greatest importance to many collectors, is a portion of the mintage is believed to have been struck after the mint was ceased by the Confederacy. It is impossible to determine which coins were struck under Confederate control, but the factor of intrigue remains for collectors.
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The 1907 High Reliefs with Roman Numerals in the date, is acknowledged as the most beautiful design ever employed on a circulation-strike U.S. coin. They were the result of a lengthy collaboration between famous sculptor Augustus Saint-Gaudens, who was encouraged to develop the design by President Theodore Roosevelt, and Chief Engraver Charles Barber of the Philadelphia Mint. Each coin required three blows from the 150-ton medal press to completely bring up the design, and the planchets had to be annealed between each blow. The average time needed to strike each individual coin was 12 minutes, clearly too slow to strike any large number of coins. As a result, only 12,367 pieces were reportedly produced.
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For many collectors, the idea of 1857-dated Mint State gold coinage begins and ends with the 1857-S double eagles from the S.S. Central America. To a lesser extent, however, the 1857 half eagle also fits the bill, though with a mintage in the high five figures, there is an understandable cap on the number of potential Mint State pieces. The PCGS population is a mere 4 with 1 (MS64+ example) graded higher. The one offered here displays rich color and a bold strike.
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A mintage of 99,581 half eagles was accomplished in 1811, with two die varieties known for the date. The coin offered here represents the BD-1 variety, characterized by the Tall 5 in the denomination. Experts believe 175-250 examples of the BD-1 survive today in all grades. The 1811 half eagle has been a popular date with collectors since the earliest days of the hobby. Examples began to appear at auction at least as early as the A.C. Kline Sale (Moses Thomas and Sons, 6/1855), where a nice example was offered in lot 185. The popularity of this issue has remained constant over the years. The PCGS population stands at 4 with 29 higher.
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The 1903-S is a plentiful and largely unheralded issue, that only begins to command a real numismatic premium at the near-Gem grade level. This is one of only 18 to have received this grade from PCGS with none higher. The example offered here exhibits a very bold strike, satiny surfaces and pleasing orange-gold color.
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